High poll turnout a riddle for contenders in Nashik

NASHIK: The rise in polling by 13 per cent over the last Lok Sabha elections in the Nashik constituency has made the major contenders in the fray jittery, triggering speculation over who would stand to benefit from the extra votes.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the percentage of votes polled in Nashik constituency was 45, which has gone up to around 59.In the previous election, Sameer Bhujbal, who is the nephew of veteran NCP leader and guardian minister of Nashik Chhagan Bhujbal, had polled 2.38 lakh votes and won the seat with a margin of about 22,000 votes. MNS candidate Hemant Godse had then garnered 2.16 lakh votes and Shiv Sena nominee Datta Gaikwad polled 1.58 lakh votes.
In the ongoing poll process, the increased turnout may push Chhagan Bhujbal, who is contesting on an NCP ticket in place of his nephew, in the danger zone. The Bhujbal camp is still confident of winning the seat, albeit with a slender margin. However, anti-incumbency, the publicity blitzkrieg of Narendra Modi as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate and the caste polarization are factors that could be major impediments. While the traditional vote pockets have turned out as expected, there have been communities like Teli, apart from traders, who have polarized against him. There is a substantial section of people in Nashik who are annoyed with the style of functioning of the Bhujbal clan (Bhujbal senior as MLA from Yeola and PWD minister, son Pankaj as MLA from Nandgaon and nephew Sameer as Nashik MP).
In the run-up to the polls, there was speculation that if the turnout touched or crossed 60 per cent, Bhujbal's chances of winning would decline. The turnout at the hustings is almost 59 per cent.
Hemant Godse, who had contested as the MNS nominee in the last Lok Sabha polls from Nashik constituency and finished second, is now contesting as a Shiv Sena nominee. The Sena camp is jubilant over the rise in poll percentage and presumes that the extra votes would manifest the anti-incumbency factor and go against the NCP. The Sena leaders also pointed out at the surge in the turnout in rural areas of Nashik and the "Modi wave" that would lift the chances of their candidate winning the seat. However, there are issues like the dissent in the Sena over "importing" the candidate from MNS, the fissures between the ranks and file of the Sena and BJP and the image of Godse as an inert elected representative in the Nashik Zilla Parishad and the Nashik Municipal Corporation (NMC).
The other major contender, Pradeep Pawar from the MNS, is banking on the support of three MLAs of his party in the Nashik city (Uttam Dhikale in Nashik East, Vasant Gite in Nashik Central and Nitin Bhosale in Nashik West), the charisma of party chief Raj Thackeray and the anti-incumbency of the NCP. The MNS camp has attributed the rise in polling percentage to the meetings addressed by Thackeray in Nashik and the enthusiasm of young voters. But the MNS, too, faces anti-incumbency in Nashik city as it is running the show in the Nashik Municipal Corporation (NMC) since the 2012 civic polls. The MNS, which had emerged as the single-largest party, had defeted the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance by forming a truck with the BJP, which ditched the Sena. It is the first time after its launch in 2006 that the MNS has made it to any elected body and its performance in the NMC has invited the wrath of not only the people, but also its own civic leaders- like three out of six divisional committees passing resolutions against the garbage contractors appointed by the new regime.
Also, the increase in poll percentage over the last Lok Sabha elections in Nashik has been in the range of 52 to 55 in the three assembly segments represented by the MNS MLAs, as against up to 68 per cent in the assembly segments represented by MLAs of other parties. Hence, the MNS camp is jittery over the outcome of the polls.
Among the other candidates in the fray, BSP's Dinkar Patil appears to have given up hope of winning the seat. A former city president of the Congress, Patil had switched to BSP for the Lok Sabha ticket in the run-up to the polls. For the Aam Aadmi Party candidate, whistleblower engineer Vijay Pandhare, the response from local citizens for conscientious voting against corruption has not been encouraging.